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I get 5 to 10 emails a week asking about sportsbooks and if I recommend any. At present NO and here is a few reviews from my experience and people who are regulars and their feelings.
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"Texas A&M vs Kansas"
Jeff Alexander
Friday's Free Pick:
NCAAB
1 Unit on Kansas Jayhawks -9
Bottom Line: Texas A&M gave Kansas all it wanted and more in a 5-point defeat back in February, but expect the Jayhawks to flex their muscles on a neutral floor tonight. Well, it's actually closer to being a home floor for Kansas. With the tourney being played in Kansas City, there will be a lot of Jayhawk faithful on hand to root for their team. Kansas is a perfect 10-0 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 84.9 to 65.3. Kansas is also 18-5 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 79.6 to 64.4.
We'll lay the points with the Jayhawks tonight.
"Early Dog Hunting "
Doug @ 3 Daily Winners
Early Dog Hunting
A handful of games had early lines for Friday, with the matchups already predetermined. For this week, the idea, especially before Saturday, is to find the best value, which means hunting for underdogs. Here is a look at the chances of those dogs that were assigned early numbers, attempting to figure out if they can cover or win outright.
St. Bonaventure’s needs your prayers
The Bonnies won their opening game 83-71 over DuQuesne as a one-point favorite. After torching the nets early in the season, conference play slowed down St. Bonaventure’s. However, recently the team has regained their shooting eye, converting on 49.2 percent or more in their last four outings. The Bonnies are 5-1 and 4-2 ATS in last six contests; unfortunately they will be up against Temple defense that allows 56.8 points per game and 38.1 percent.
The Owls have won seven straight and nine or 10, with only loss at highly respected Richmond. Temple has won and covered last nine meetings by an average of 19.2 per game. Sportsbook.com has the Owls sitting as 10-point favorites and they are 6-0 ATS as neutral site favorites for this high noon start.
Underdog Cover Chance – Slimmer than Heidi Montag
Contrast in style
St. Louis is the higher seed at four; nevertheless, they are the underdog to Rhode Island by three-points. Oddmakers tip their hat to coach Rick Majerus, but are not convinced the Billikens 8-2 SU and ATS close to the season is for real. Ignorance is bliss for St. Louis, since they perfectly suited for this moment, having only been favored twice during this stretch. The average total score of a Billikens game is just over 122 points, while the Rams prefer the speedy 94-foot version that goes up and down to the tune of 148.6 total points a contest.
Oddsmakers might be giving an indication of what they really think having the total at 128.5, definitely at more a St. Louis pace. Rhode Island sunk St. Joe’s at home Tuesday by nine points, giving them three victories in last eight games with 1-6-1 ATS record. The Rams are in the subemployment area with 2-8-1 ATS record as favorite.
Underdog Cover Chance – better than coach Majerus missing next meal
Illini-wreck
The fight has come out of Illinois, losing five of six with two covers. After shooting 49 percent or better five out of six times from Jan.23 –Feb. 9, the Fighting Illini have become card caring members of the welders union having to repair broken rims since they have been clanging hoists at 38.3 percent or worse in most contests. (5 of 6) They shot 35.6 percent against today’s opponent Wisconsin only five days ago and they are 0-5 SU and ATS at neutral site locations.
The Badgers are favored by eight-points which seems a bit generous, but they are 12-4 and 9-5 ATS off a spread cover and are 5-0 ATS after scoring in 68-79 point range this year.
Underdog Cover Chance – Better than Simon Cowell and Sting having lunch
Dayton chasing bid
Dayton was the preseason choice to be A-10 champions this campaign, instead it turns out they weren’t even the second best team in Ohio from the Atlantic 10. The Flyers reached the 20-win barrier with non-cover 70-60 home win against George Washington in opening round and needs more W’s to be strongly considered for NCAA bid. The players understand their task.
“We just know we have to give it our all every single night and we cannot let up," Dayton forward Kurt Huelsman said. "We're not perfect, nobody's perfect and we made mistakes. But we have to learn and move on." Dayton is just 1-6-1 ATS and faces their biggest rival Xavier.
The Musketeers have rattled off seven wins in a row and 11 of 12 (9-3 ATS) and are playing for A-10 title and NCAA seeding. Xavier has scars from last Dayton dual, being thrashed 90-65 and is listed as three-point fave. The favored squad has covered 13 of the previous 17 conflicts.
Underdog Cover Chance – Similar to driving Toyota, risky
Massachusetts dealing with arachnophobia
The Minutemen were the one lower seed (11th) to pull the upset in the opening round of A-10 tourney. They upset Charlotte 59-56 as nine-point road underdogs, despite shooting 32.1 percent. Next up is one the best defensive teams in the country in Richmond, who is also very efficient on offense. On the year, UMass shoots only 40.1 percent from the field and 30.1 percent from three-point range. Those figures correlate with the Spiders defensive numbers.
Massachusetts is on the receiving end of 9.5-points and is just 1-5 ATS as neutral site dog. The bright side is the Minutemen are 7-3 ATS with two days rest and has covered three previous meetings with Richmond. Unfortunately, these Spiders really get under opposing teams skin, with 10 wins in 11 tries (9-1-1 ATS) and only defeat was at Xavier by two in double overtime.
Underdog Cover Chance – The movie “Cop Out” for Oscar nomination
Doug Upstone
3 Daily Winners
"Your Sports Betting Source
for Knowledge and Tips"
"Top Four NCAA Seeds Set in Stone "
Doug @ 3 Daily Winners
Top Four NCAA Seeds Set in Stone
One of the most anticipated televised programs for college basketball fans is this Sunday’s Selection Show on CBS. This is where the entire field of 65 teams is announced and college basketball teams anxiously await to find who, where and if they are part of the illustrious field. In most years, the top seeds are in question, pending the outcomes of conference tournaments. Most of the time a couple of the top teams are considered safe during Championship Week, however anywhere from four to eight teams come down the stretch with at least an outside chance to snag a coveted No.1 seed.
Until this year.
All season we have listened to the offerings of ESPN’s Jay Bilas telling us there are no great teams, which is partially correct, but sometimes true greatness isn’t measured until we’ve had time to reflect.
For the last couple of weeks, we have also been told that this year’s NCAA tournament could be “one of the wackiest ever” (from Dick Vitale) and as many as eight to 12 teams are capable of putting together a six game winning streak and be crowned champions.
Unless a catastrophic injury occurs, like what happened to Purdue, the four number one seeds are already locked. Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse and Duke will be at the top of each of the four regions, thus saving you from having to watch the first five minutes of the Selection Show should you so choose.
You can put in the book, even if all your teams were to lose their first game of the conference tournament, they would all still emerge as No.1’s.
What makes me so sure, all you have to do is look up the odds to win the national championship at most sportsbooks. This is how it currently reads.
Kansas +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
Kentucky +300
Syracuse +300
Duke +700
They are the top four teams in every legitimate ranking service and the next group down is for the near-sighted.
Until last week, Kansas State still had a argument, sort of an under the radar choice, but losing to the Jayhawks in Lawrence and carrying that baggage around to falter against Iowa State at home a few days later, takes them out of contention.
Purdue had a very legit chance to crack this cluster, however the unfortunate loss of Robbie Hummel still leaves the Boilermakers high in the polls, but not to those placing futures wagers. Purdue is down to +3500 to be crowned champions, placing them below Wisconsin (+2500), but above Tennessee (+5000).
I asked COO Ken White of Las Vegas Sports Consultants what he would speculate Purdue would have been with healthy Hummel and he said “Purdue opened (the season) at 12-1 and if Hummel had not been injured, the Boilermakers would likely have been 7 to 1 or 8 to 1”.
West Virginia and Ohio State are among the favorites to win the Big East and Big Ten conference tournaments, however even if they did come away as titlist’s, the Mountaineers have six losses and until knocking off Villanova last week, there most impressive road was against Seton Hall (?). The Buckeyes have suffered seven defeats and the loss at North Carolina back in November doesn’t help the resume now and they were also beaten by West Virginia. Both teams are +1200 to win it all.
A case could be made for New Mexico, if they were 31-0 instead of 28-3. Much like a non-BCS conferences in football, the Lobos spectacular surprise season is outstanding, just not good enough to be top seed unless they were unscathed. Interestingly, New Mexico is +4500 to be national champions.
In the end, if there are truly no great teams, than what is the rest of the field? Is this the year a Villanova (’85) or N.C. State (’74) from yesteryear comes out of nowhere to pull a Buster Douglas and shock the world? We are about to find out, backed with the knowledge whom the top four seeds already are.
Doug Upstone
3 Daily Winners
"Your Sports Betting Source
for Knowledge and Tips"
"Need to Know Conference Tourney Betting Info"
Doug @ 3 Daily Winners
Need to Know Conference Tourney Betting Info
Don't have a lot of time to read thru all the information relating to conference tournament games and matchups. Well here is a brief look ahead at 12 tourneys, with concise, pointed info and few angles to consider, along with who should be playing in the title games from each conference. It's worth the time to take a few minutes to get your game face on.
Conference USA Preview – March 10-13
It’s a brave new world in C-USA as they prepare for their 15th postseason tourney. UTEP is the regular season champion and will look to unseat Memphis, who has won the last four tournaments. In fact, if anyone other than the Tigers’ wins, it would be just the second different team to win, with all other previous champions in other leagues. UTEP is the favorite, as they are suffered just one conference loss all year and have first Top 25 ranking since 1992. The Miners are also 9-3 and 8-4 ATS away from El Paso.
UAB and Memphis are legitimate threats, the Blazers 11-4 SU away from home and the Tigers have pedigree and experience, plus coach Josh Pastner will talk up tradition. Marshall has the size (6’11 Lee Whiteside) and three-point shooting ability to be dangerous, having won eight of last nine and are 9-3 ATS as visitors. The venue change should benefit Tulsa, who will be playing before home town fans. Jerome Jordan and Ben Uzoh are dynamic duo. Of the teams below the top five, only Southern Miss looks capable. The Golden Eagles are 12-3 ATS away and 10-3 ATS as underdogs, however have only three wins.
Quarterfinals underdogs are 9-3 ATS, the last three years.
Prediction: UTEP vs Memphis final
Championship -11:30ET, CBS
Pacific 10 Preview - March 10-13
This conference has enjoyed all the appeal of a republican’s view of President Obama’s health care plan. The league was supposed to be down and didn’t even meet those substandard expectations this season. California has the best overall talent and is the top seed and has never won this event, finishing second in 2006. USC will be on the sidelines with suspension, meaning the 8 vs. 9 winner draws the Bears. Washington was expected to compete for title, but proved to be too young and senior Quincy Pondexter did not enjoy stellar senior season. The Huskies were dogs on the road with 4-7 SU and ATS mark.
Arizona State finished second in the league, thanks to great coaching by Herb Sendek, with limited ability and could make title game on smarts and guile, something lacking in this conference. Honestly, it’s hard to make a case for any other teams and the crowds are usually sparse at the Staples Center when the Pac-10 has four or five good teams, which means this could resemble a New Jersey Nets home game. Best advice here is play underdogs, as many of the teams as evenly matched (stink).
Favorites of three to six points are on a run of 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in the Pac 10 Tournament.
Prediction: California and Washington final
Championship -6:00ET, CBS
Big 12 Preview - March 10-13
The 2010 tournament returns to original location, Kansas City, with a stacked field. Coach Bill Self’s club is the betting choice and they have been a consistent winner all season. This is not a great Kansas team (the one that won the title two years ago was better with more mature players), however that might be good enough in 2010. The scariest aspect of backing the Jayhawks is they have continually not buried teams. The 9-2 SU road record is impressive, however winning by 9.9 points per game is not.
Who can knock off Kansas? Baylor has quickness and strong front court, Missouri can score in bunches with pressing defense and Texas A&M has G Donald Sloan and adequate players in the paint. Oklahoma State has picked off the Jayhawks and has G James Anderson and other Cowboys’ sharp-shooters whom are treacherous. Texas has suffered too many injuries and still lacks guards to matter much. This leaves Kansas State, who has all the attributes to take down the Jayhawks, including great guard play. This should be fabulous tournament with several close games, lending value to underdogs, who could be better than average wagers.
Underdogs of six points or more are 37-21 ATS since 2000.
Prediction: Kansas vs. Baylor in final
Championship -6:00ET, ESPN
MAC Preview – Mar. 7, 10-13
Kent State has won this tournament four times since 2001 and will among the favorites again. The Golden Flashes have the mental makeup to win tight tilts and have blown out their fair share of MAC teams and are 5-1 SU and ATS as road favorites. The main competition figures to be division partner Akron, who is the defending champion. The Zips have plenty of zip and are 10-2 and 6-4 ATS off a spread loss. The West Division is strictly generic by comparison, however at least Central Michigan drew the higher seed as champ.
The first four games were played at higher seeded home sites this past Sunday and those winners will have the benefit of momentum, rest and preparation taking on teams at neutral site of Cleveland. Ohio U. and Buffalo can make noise being the top two scoring teams and Ball State is the best defensive team, holding opponents to 40 percent shooting. Nonetheless, Kent State and Akron have been so dominant this season, it’s difficult to look anywhere else for championship matchup.
The title tilt favorite is 9-3 SU and ATS and the SU winner is 12-0 ATS.
Prediction: Kent State vs. Akron in final
Championship -6:00ET, ESPN2
Mountain West Preview - March 10-13
The last few Mountain West tournaments have been little lackluster, however this 2010 version is setting up to be very competitive, as long as the chalk wins. New Mexico and BYU are the class the conference, both being ranked natioanlly the last seven weeks of the season. The Lobos are 11-2 and 7-4-1 ATS on the road and the Cougars are 13-3 and 11-5 ATS in same situation, winning by over 12 points per game. Just be careful with these two teams in the quarter-finals, as MWC favorites of nine or more an ordinary 8-7 ATS since 2002.
UNLV is again the host, which has been tremendous edge, emerging victorious three times and finishing second two other times on their home floor in seven years. San Diego State is also a threat because of their tenacious defense, allowing the fewest points in the conference. Difficult to imagine the Aztecs advancing far if they get in tight game, being last in the league in free throw shooting at just over 60 percent.
Favorites have done well in recent MWC tourneys, going 7-1 SU and ATS over the last three years in the semi-finals and title games.
Prediction: New Mexico and Las Vegas in final
Championship -7:00ET, Versus
Big East Preview - March 9-13
For the second straight season, all 16 members of the Big East will participate in this gala event. The first day will have the bottom eight teams in action and at least from talent perspective, Connecticut and Seton Hall are the best, but both have to play at faster pace to succeed. The four winners of the opening day move on to face seeds 5 thru 8 and this grouping is packing with some real quality. Though they might not be the most talented, Marquette and Notre Dame are playing the best, with the Golden Eagles 9-2 and 8-3 ATS and the Fighting Irish on 7-2 ATS run out.
In the quarterfinals, the heavyweights arrive and though it seems unlikely any in this group would lose, at least one underdog has won outright on average over the last dozen years. Let’s move Syracuse and Pittsburgh to semis, based on ability and Pitt’s exceptional record in March in New York. Looking for an upset, think Villanova, who is 2-3 in last five outings and 3-7 ATS since February.
This tournament has often seen one team make improbable run the last several years and only once has a team won back to back since 2000, which should eliminate Louisville. Favorites of seven or less are 9-2 SU and ATS the first two days.
Prediction: Syracuse and Pittsburgh in final
Championship -9:00ET, ESPN
Big West Preview – March 10-13
Many may not know or remember the Big West has held this annual event every year since 1976. One dependable aspect of this conference is 11 of the last 13 years, the champion or co-champion of the regular season has appeared in the championship game. That should mean UC-Santa Barbara or Pacific or both have a great chance to wind up playing for NCAA automatic bid. Cal-State Fullerton is the league’s top scoring team and is 8-3 ATS as a visitor, however lost all four games to the top two teams.
UC-Davis is up and down and their best trait is being 11-5 ATS against Big West foes. This competition will again be held in Anaheim. The previous five years, it’s been like nearby Disneyland for total players. Those on the UNDER are 23-9, 73.5 percent, with all the games coming in a full four points below the oddsmakers average total in games played.
This Big West bash is known for being competitive, as only 10 matchups have registered above 7.5-point spread in recent years and though the underdog is laughable 1-9, they are potent 8-2 ATS.
Prediction: UCSB and Pacific in final
Championship - 8:00ET, ESPN2
WAC Preview – March 11-13
Eight teams will be in Reno, NV for the WAC conference tournament. The University of Nevada finished tied for second in the league and will have the advantage of playing on their home floor. Utah State is the definite favorite as the league champion and was 11-5 ATS in conference action. Interestingly, all the other squads facing off in upstate Nevada are right around or above .500 against the spread, with the exception of the Wolf Pack who are 6-10 ATS. This could make underdogs a play with history to back it up.
Over the previous four tourneys, dogs have had plenty of bite with a 20-9 ATS record and the OVER has also been a strong play at 21-10. Beyond the top four seeds, Fresno State has the most talent, however difficult to throw much support their way since they are 3-12 SU as visitors. No. 4 Louisiana Tech will have chance to take down Utah State in semis should they get that far, having earned a split and covering both meetings. Nevada will have the home court edge over New Mexico State and last week won and covered over the Aggies. Nevada finished second to Utah State in last year’s tournament at the same Lawler Events Center and this could be the third meeting in five years with these same two schools.
Prediction: Nevada and Utah State in final
Championship -10:00ET, ESPN2
SEC Preview – March 11-14
This year’s SEC Tournament is like many from the past, with Kentucky a decided favorite as the top seed. Mississippi State also nabs a co-No.1 placement having won the SEC West. This year’s competition will still have a vast number of Wildcats fans in attendance, but it will also have a flavor of those from the Volunteer State, being played at the Sommet Center in Nashville, where Vanderbilt and Tennessee will be well represented.
The lesser teams in the conference are all obviously flawed, yet other than LSU, all have at least one positive attribute that makes them a dangerous dog. South Carolina has Devan Downey, Georgia is athletic (1-12 away from home however), Auburn and Arkansas are capable of scoring outbursts and Alabama is second in the conference in fewest points allowed. If any of these teams make the quarterfinals, consider them since underdogs are 8-3 ATS this round.
This still figures to be the Kentucky Invitational and teams in the title game are 8-1 UNDER with dog 5-3-1 ATS.
Prediction: Kentucky and Vanderbilt in final
Championship -1:00ET, ABC
Atlantic 10 Preview – March 9, 12-14
The A-10 tourney is known for mini-runs as only three teams (’97 St. Joseph’s, ’99 Rhode Island and ’03 Dayton) have not won consecutive championships or two of three since 1991. This year’s tournament could be one of the most exciting ever, with a number of strong teams at the top and the second level clubs capable of stringing together a number of wins. All season, two-time defending A-10 postseason champ Temple, Xavier and Richmond have shown to be the class of the conference. St. Louis, Charlotte and Rhode Island have all proven they can win a segment of games, with the Rams ability to score (2nd in the A-10) and winning road record (9-6) and the Billikens second in points allowed in the league.
The best teams will of course be favored and it could be profitable to watch them in the right situation, as double digit favorites are 9-0 and 7-2 ATS. The first round is always at the home higher seed and the home-standing favorite of seven or less points is 18-4 and 17-5 ATS. Once they get to Atlantic City, all bets are off (pun intended) and Temple and Richmond rematch from Feb. 6 (Spiders won 71-54) seems like a possibility.
Prediction: Temple and Richmond in final
Championship -1:00ET, CBS
ACC Preview – March 11-14
The Atlantic Coast Conference was created in 1953 and starting one year later, the ACC held a men’s postseason tournament, making it the one all others yearn to have for prestige and history. It has not been a banner year for the ACC, with a number of good squads, with just two standing above the fray. Duke and Maryland have been the finest, yet no team among the 12 members had a winning road record in conference. The Terps are 8-5 and 8-4 ATS on the road overall and the Blue Devils are 9-5 and 7-6-1 ATS in same spot.
The most intriguing team with the most to gain is North Carolina, who was playing better of late (until Duke massacre) and has to win out in order to defend their NCAA title. The other bottom teams in the standings seem to have little chance, as they have been in losing mode, with the exception of Boston College who has won primarily at home. Virginia Tech has bunched together wins to be considered for semi-finals and Florida State is a threat the way they play defense, if they can make shots.
Review this; ACC underdogs boast an overall mark of 44-23-3 ATS since 2003.
Prediction: Duke and Virginia Tech in final
Championship -1:00ET, ESPN
Big Ten Preview – March 11-14
It really has been a maniacal year in the Big Ten. Teams lost when they had every reason to win on their home court and underdogs off deflating losses bounced back immediately to win as head-scratchers. In the end, one team stood above the rest playing their best basketball of the season, Ohio State. The Buckeyes have won 10 of 11 (6-5 ATS) and have a versatile starting lineup led by Evan Turner that can thwart the opposition in various ways. Michigan State, despite its fine record, has disappointed, not being as strong as most thought. Purdue could very likely have won the Big Ten outright, however the loss of Robbie Hummel takes them from top five in the country to Top 20-30 range.
Two teams that are under the radar in this part of the world are Wisconsin and Illinois. The Badgers have their big man back in Jon Leuer and could put together a weekend streak and steal this deal. Illinois is physically capable with Demetri McCamey leading the Fighting Illini; it’s just a matter of the rest of the team being mentally strong to compete day after day. Pending seeds, nobody will want to see Penn State, who is 3-15 in league play, but 9-2 ATS on the road, losing by less than four points a game.
These games tend to wrestling matches and the UNDER has hit 60 percent the last three years.
Prediction: Ohio State vs. Michigan State in final
Championship -3:30ET, CBS
Doug Upstone
3 Daily Winners
"Your Sports Betting Source
for Knowledge and Tips"
"How to win betting college basketball tournament games"
Doug @ 3 Daily Winners
How to win betting college basketball tournament games
The regular season is over except for one Ivy League game and the automatic bids are starting to fill in part of the NCAA Tournament dance card, with many of the so-called mid-majors having their conference championships completed. This leaves the bigger and more well-known conferences, along with a sprinkling of somewhat smaller leagues to start filling in with their respective teams.
In order to win during ESPN’s Championship week, you have to follow somewhat different rules than the regular season in wagering this week. Here are aspects to remember.
1) Choosing the right pooch
In most conferences tourney’s, underdogs are an above average wager, as these teams generally have more motivation and likely need to win to get in the tournament. One thing to look for is underdogs that have lost to opponent by 10 or more points twice and are double digit dogs before the semi-final round. This is where an unfocused favorite is most vulnerable and likely will go thru the motions against opponent that has been coached up for this being “a brand new season”. This can be particularly true if the underdog has already won one game in first round of larger conference event and has built a little momentum.
2) Underdogs in the right range
Another situation to look for is an underdog that has lost twice to the same opponent but byfive or less points in home and away situations in the same season. The scores tell us the difference between the two teams is not that significant, a shot here, a few missed free throws or late turnover could have been the difference. The underdog knows they are capable of beating this team; they just have to go out and prove it, which they are certainly capable of. This can be especially true if they have a lower defensive shooting percentage than their opponent on the season. Best bets are those at three points or higher.
3) Don’t get carried away with revenge
One of the most common mistakes I see and hear is sports bettors playing into multiple revenge situations. The two bits of information I just laid out do fall into revenge areas, but don’t get carried away. One such circumstance would be playing against a favorite, who defeated opponent by 15 or more points twice and in both cases the spread was single digits. In all likelihood, the oddsmakers will once again set a number below 10, making this a bad wager and here is why. If the underdog has been blown out twice and the oddsmakers is still calling for tighter game, something is amiss. The next step is to find if there is a matchup issue for the underdog, a player they can’t contain or maybe a style of defense they can’t solve. Old school handicapping would say bet the underdog seeking revenge, but today’s athlete is more confident to “work” opponent and is fearless knowing they can school foe yet again.
Another case would be a single digit underdog who lost by 25 or more with the teams meeting only one time and they were dogs by less than 10 points in previous meeting and have lost two of the prior three confrontations in past years. Basically the same scenario, the favorite cleans the clock of opponent and has history with many of the same players on the roster to do so yet again.
4) When in doubt go Under
Totals become a greater focus in college basketball this time of year, even for those that don’t play them a great deal during the regular season. Conference tournaments are about familiarity and coaches have more than enough film to understand tendencies of whom they are about to play and the pace slows considerably. This is not a revelation, as those setting the numbers are keenly aware, however they can’t deviate too far off the performance chart of how teams have played and all season, low-balling a number they might prefer, but than being slammed with a high volume of Over money, leaving them susceptible to being middled.
5) Road Warriors are safe bet
Always know the road record of matched teams in any meeting. Teams that have success on the road are less likely to give a bad performance as a favorite or underdog if they understand how to play away from home. It wasn’t a coincidence that William and Mary made the Colonial final, despite having no pedigree do to so. The Tribe entered the title game 12-6 and 11-6 ATS as a visitor. It’s worth watching Southern Mississippi who is 12-3 ATS away from Hattiesburgh and Richmond this week, who posted 10-6 and 11-4 ATS mark on the road.
One word of caution, don’t follow spread records exclusively, know the score. A team like East Carolina might look attractive at first glance at 1o-5 against the spread when out-of-town, but are they a good bet say at +8 or less when they lose on average by more than 10 points a game?
6) Numbers don’t lie
By now, most every team has played around 30 games or more and as former NFL football coach Bill Parcels said, “you are who you are”. If a team is around .500, yet has won five in a row, study the numbers to understand what has changed and look up information on the team. Maybe a change in the lineup sparked a hot streak or if this team was underachieving until recently and finally started playing up to level most suspected they should all year, that would be reason to look beyond the numbers.
Otherwise, don’t presume a team like North Carolina, who has surrendered 78 points per game away from Chapel Hill, is suddenly going to be a defensive maven and win the ACC Tournament because they decided to turn it on. Can it happen, of course, is it likely too, not really.
7) Follow coaches, just carefully
This past week, I was reading thru several different forums and at least on 20 occasions from a variety of bettors, they were all going to play Creighton to beat Bradley in Arch Madness, for first game for both squads because of the coach’s history. Dana Altman is a proven X’s and O’s coach, and has won The Valley tournament a number of times and had success in the NCAA tourney as well. One big thing to remember, he did this with better than average to very good teams. He came into matchup with Bradley, with a boring 16-14 club that was 3-12 and 4-11 ATS away from Omaha. The Blue Jays were four point favorites and were scalped by the Braves 81-62.
It makes sense to back a coach with a solid March history, but only if he has the players capable of maximizing his skills.
8) Need to know info
This is a bit self-serving, but Steve Makinen of StatFox worked his tail off in finding some of the finest information you will discover anywhere about particular conference tournaments . It’s on the site, so make sure to read it and keep it handy this week in making decisions. For me personally, I picked up two winners that I was on the fence about and dropped two games that would have been losers, because of this information.
One last case to remember. Just because a team hosts a conference tournament does not make them a lock to being champions. There have been ample times this has occurred, however they can also fail. Already this year, Mercer made the championship game on their home floor and came up short as an underdog to East Tennessee State and top seeded Coastal Carolina failed as a favorite in title tilt as a home favorite to Winthrop.
Make certain to follow these tips and you too can become a consistent betting winner during championship week.
Doug Upstone
3 Daily Winners
"Your Sports Betting Source
for Knowledge and Tips"
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Consensus Results
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Posted plays plus 5 or greater
Record 2008/9 starts with NFLX
2009/10 Consensus(Starts 8/9)
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Consensus Record 2009/10
324W 316L 4P 52%
Bank 2009/10 $1,830
Sat. Mar.6
1W 3L 1P
Texas A&M (8-1) W
Nova (15-0) L
Mizz (14-4) L
Baylor (14-1) W
Arizona (6-0) P
Miss. St (6-1) L
2009/10 Record Break down
CBB season 53W 49L 1P 52%
NBA season 45W 40L 1P 54%
NHL season 7W 8L 0P 50%
NFLX 17W 18L 1P 49%
NFL season 79W 91L 2P 46%
NFL Playoffs 8W 5L 61%
CFB season 101W 93L 1P 52%
Bowl G. 18W 14L 0P 56%
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Final Record 2008/9
569W 534L 22P 52% -$2,235
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Final Record 2007/8
640W 599L 23P 52% -$2,500
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Final record 2006/7
342W 275L 8P 55% +$3,950
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Final record 2005/6
236W 199L 5P 54% +$1,640
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Final record 2004/5
309W 257L 5P 54% +$2,730
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Final record 2003/4
188W 133L 9P 59% +$4,170
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Record 2002/3
Not calculated
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